|
Endpoint |
RR (CrI) |
Prob. (%) risk null |
Prob. (%) risk reduction of at least 10% |
Prob. (%) risk reduction of at least 15% |
Primary |
0.70 (0.58 - 0.82) |
100 |
100 |
99 |
CV Death |
0.76 (0.44 - 1.33) |
85 |
73 |
65 |
MI |
0.72 (0.56 - 0.92) |
100 |
97 |
92 |
Stroke |
0.42 (0.17 - 0.66) |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Coronary Revascularization |
0.66 (0.53 - 0.79) |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Table 1: Mean posterior RR (CrI) and probabilities of risk for the primary composite and individual endpoints
CrI: credible interval; CV: cardiovascular; MI: myocardial infarction; Prob.: probability; RR: risk ratio
|
Endpoint |
RR (CrI) |
Prob. (%) risk null |
Prob. (%) risk reduction of at least 10% |
Prob. (%) risk reduction of at least 15% |
Stroke |
|
|
|
|
50% of prior weight |
0.48 (0.18 - 0.79) |
100 |
100 |
99 |
25% of prior weight |
0.56 (0.20 - 0.92) |
99 |
97 |
95 |
10% of prior weight |
0.63 (0.22 - 1.04) |
96 |
90 |
85 |
Coronary Revascularization |
|
|
|
|
50% of prior weight |
0.70 (0.55 - 0.84) |
100 |
100 |
98 |
25% of prior weight |
0.73 (0.57 - 0.88) |
100 |
99 |
94 |
10% of prior weight |
0.75 (0.58 - 0.91) |
100 |
97 |
90 |
Table 2: Mean posterior RR (CrI) and probabilities of risk for the primary composite and individual endpoints using various prior weight
CrI: credible interval; Prob.: probability; RR: risk ratio
|
Endpoints |
Minimum Bayes Factor |
Prior Prob. of H (Null |
Posterior Prob. (%) (H / H) |
Prior Prob. of H (Null |
Posterior Prob. (%) (H / H) |
Primary |
0.0008 |
0.10 |
0 / 100 |
0.06 |
0 / 100 |
CV Death |
0.76 |
0.12 |
9 / 91 |
0.08 |
6 / 94 |
MI |
0.06 |
0.28 |
2 / 98 |
0.19 |
1 / 99 |
Stroke |
0.45 |
0 |
0 / 100 |
0 |
0 / 100 |
Coronary Revascularization |
0.05 |
0 |
0 / 100 |
0 |
0 / 100 |
Table 3: Null Hypothesis testing using Bayes factor
CV: cardiovascular; H0: null hypothesis; HA: alternative hypothesis; MI: myocardial infarction; Prob.: probability; RR: risk ratio
LoDoCo: Low-dose colchicine for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease; 2
COLCOT: Efficacy and safety of low- do se colchicine after myocardial infarction; 3
LoDoCo2: Colchicine in patients with chronic coronary diseaseCAD: coronary artery disease; Crl: credible interval; H0: null hypothesis, HA
: alternative hypothesis; MI: myocardial infarction: Prob.: probability; RR: risk ratio
Figure 2: Bayesian triplots of probability density functions of the primary composite and individual endpoints for the prior derived from LoDoCo and COLCOT, the likelihood representing the results from the LoDoCo2 trial and the posterior distributions of effect size.
Tables at a glance
Figures at a glance